How gold reacted to US CPI inflation on Wednesday 14 October 2026
How much consumer prices rose over the month. The main inflation figure. The latest figure came out at 13:30 UK time on Wednesday 14 October 2026: 0.6%, against a forecast of 0.6%. The previous reading was 0.4%.
Came in exactly on the forecast. The highest reading since May 2026 (0.6%).
Out at the same time: core CPI 0.3% (forecast 0.2%); yearly CPI 3.7% (forecast 3.5%); the CPI index 336.3 (forecast 334.92).
What gold did
In the first 15 minutes gold moved -595 pips, and over the first hour -626 pips. Four hours after the release it was -731 pips from where it started.
That was a bigger first hour than usual: since April 2021, gold's first hour after CPI has typically moved about 78 pips one way or the other, across 60 releases. It was up after 33 of them and down after 27.
When US CPI inflation surprised before
This release came in about in line with the forecast.
Beats and misses have not sent gold one clear way on CPI since April 2021: after a clear miss gold's first hour was up 14 of 21 times, after a clear beat 12 of 25.
The last releases
| Date | Result | Forecast | Gold, first hour |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 0.6% | 0.6% | -626 pips |
| 12 Aug 2026 | 0.1% | 0.2% | -78 pips |
| 14 Jul 2026 | -0.4% | 0.5% | +517 pips |
| 12 May 2026 | 0.6% | 0.7% | -65 pips |
| 10 Apr 2026 | 0.9% | 0.3% | +131 pips |
| 11 Mar 2026 | 0.3% | 0.3% | -88 pips |
| 13 Feb 2026 | 0.2% | 0.2% | +358 pips |
| 11 Sep 2025 | 0.4% | 0.2% | -14 pips |
| 12 Aug 2025 | 0.2% | 0.6% | +87 pips |
| 15 Jul 2025 | 0.3% | -0.3% | -132 pips |
| 11 Jun 2025 | 0.1% | 0.6% | -12 pips |
| 13 May 2025 | 0.2% | -0.3% | +47 pips |
The next CPI release is due on Tuesday 10 November 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Moves are in pips, where one pip on gold is $0.10, measured from the price at the minute of the release.
Get it live in the Newsroom
The Newsroom in the Trade By Focus app has this for every US release: the result against the forecast as it lands, gold's move after it, how it compares with every earlier release, and the next ones on the calendar, with the day's gold news read as it comes in. Open the Newsroom
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