How gold reacted to the ISM services survey on Monday 5 October 2026
A survey of service businesses. Above 50 means services are growing. The latest figure came out at 15:00 UK time on Monday 5 October 2026: 54.9, against a forecast of 54.7. The previous reading was 55.4.
The lowest reading since August 2026 (54.1). Second release in a row above forecast.
Out at the same time: ISM services prices 74 (forecast 76.9).
What gold did
In the first 15 minutes gold moved +67 pips, and over the first hour +113 pips. Four hours after the release it was +10 pips from where it started, and a day later +168 pips.
That was a bigger first hour than usual: since April 2021, gold's first hour after the ISM services survey has typically moved about 58 pips one way or the other, across 60 releases. It was up after 30 of them and down after 30.
When the ISM services survey surprised before
This release came in about in line with the forecast.
Beats and misses have not sent gold one clear way on the ISM services survey since April 2021: after a clear miss gold's first hour was up 15 of 25 times, after a clear beat 8 of 19.
The last releases
| Date | Result | Forecast | Gold, first hour |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Oct 2026 | 54.9 | 54.7 | +113 pips |
| 03 Sep 2026 | 55.4 | 53.8 | +150 pips |
| 05 Aug 2026 | 54.1 | 54.3 | +381 pips |
| 05 May 2026 | 53.6 | 54.6 | +35 pips |
| 04 Mar 2026 | 56.1 | 52.3 | +82 pips |
| 04 Feb 2026 | 53.8 | 51.8 | -644 pips |
| 03 Dec 2025 | 52.6 | 52.4 | +63 pips |
| 04 Sep 2025 | 52 | 52.4 | -2 pips |
| 05 Aug 2025 | 50.1 | 52.5 | +119 pips |
| 03 Jul 2025 | 50.8 | 52.2 | -72 pips |
| 04 Jun 2025 | 49.9 | 52.6 | +248 pips |
| 05 May 2025 | 51.6 | 52.6 | -18 pips |
The next the ISM services survey release is due on Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Moves are in pips, where one pip on gold is $0.10, measured from the price at the minute of the release.
Get it live in the Newsroom
The Newsroom in the Trade By Focus app has this for every US release: the result against the forecast as it lands, gold's move after it, how it compares with every earlier release, and the next ones on the calendar, with the day's gold news read as it comes in. Open the Newsroom
Important
For analysis purposes only. This shows what happened after past releases and should not be taken as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Past moves do not tell you what gold will do next. Trading carries a high risk of losing money.
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