How gold reacted to the US jobs report on Friday 2 October 2026
Jobs the US added last month, outside farming. Out on the first Friday of the month. The latest figure came out at 13:30 UK time on Friday 2 October 2026: 29K, against a forecast of 52K. The previous reading was 162K.
The lowest reading since August 2026 (-23K).
Out at the same time: hourly earnings 0.1% (forecast 0.3%); the unemployment rate 4.2% (forecast 4.1%).
What gold did
In the first 15 minutes gold moved +241 pips, and over the first hour +68 pips. Four hours after the release it was -506 pips from where it started, and a day later -470 pips.
That was about a usual first hour: since May 2021, gold's first hour after payrolls has typically moved about 98 pips one way or the other, across 62 releases. It was up after 35 of them and down after 27.
When the US jobs report surprised before
This release came in about in line with the forecast.
Since May 2021, payrolls came in clearly below forecast 13 times. Gold's first hour was up every time, by a middle amount of +111 pips.
The last releases
| Date | Result | Forecast | Gold, first hour |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct 2026 | 29K | 52K | +68 pips |
| 04 Sep 2026 | 162K | 41K | -602 pips |
| 07 Aug 2026 | -23K | 41K | +457 pips |
| 02 Jul 2026 | 57K | 43K | +481 pips |
| 05 Jun 2026 | 172K | 77K | -599 pips |
| 08 May 2026 | 115K | 90K | +172 pips |
| 06 Mar 2026 | -92K | 79K | +219 pips |
| 11 Feb 2026 | 130K | 89K | -99 pips |
| 09 Jan 2026 | 50K | 100K | +216 pips |
| 16 Dec 2025 | 64K | 120K | +246 pips |
| 20 Nov 2025 | 119K | 84K | -49 pips |
| 05 Sep 2025 | 22K | 129K | +259 pips |
The next payrolls release is due on Friday 6 November 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Moves are in pips, where one pip on gold is $0.10, measured from the price at the minute of the release.
Get it live in the Newsroom
The Newsroom in the Trade By Focus app has this for every US release: the result against the forecast as it lands, gold's move after it, how it compares with every earlier release, and the next ones on the calendar, with the day's gold news read as it comes in. Open the Newsroom
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