How gold reacted to the ISM manufacturing survey on Thursday 1 October 2026
A survey of factory managers. Above 50 means factories are growing. The latest figure came out at 15:00 UK time on Thursday 1 October 2026: 54.5, against a forecast of 56. The previous reading was 54.6.
The lowest reading since May 2026 (52.7). Second release in a row below forecast.
Out at the same time: ISM factory prices 77.9 (forecast 76.3).
What gold did
In the first 15 minutes gold moved -113 pips, and over the first hour -24 pips. Four hours after the release it was +51 pips from where it started, and a day later +261 pips.
That was a quieter first hour than usual: since April 2021, gold's first hour after the ISM factory survey has typically moved about 50 pips one way or the other, across 62 releases. It was up after 29 of them and down after 33.
When the ISM manufacturing survey surprised before
This release came in clearly below forecast. The 27 earlier times that happened since April 2021, gold's first hour was up 14 times and down 13, with a middle move of +8 pips. No clear pattern either way.
Beats and misses have not sent gold one clear way on the ISM factory survey since April 2021: after a clear miss gold's first hour was up 14 of 27 times, after a clear beat 9 of 18.
The last releases
| Date | Result | Forecast | Gold, first hour |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct 2026 | 54.5 | 56 | -24 pips |
| 01 Sep 2026 | 54.6 | 55.2 | -53 pips |
| 03 Aug 2026 | 55.6 | 53 | +42 pips |
| 01 May 2026 | 52.7 | 49.8 | +71 pips |
| 01 Apr 2026 | 52.7 | 52.2 | +234 pips |
| 02 Mar 2026 | 52.4 | 53 | -157 pips |
| 02 Feb 2026 | 52.6 | 47.4 | -858 pips |
| 01 Dec 2025 | 48.2 | 49.3 | -71 pips |
| 03 Nov 2025 | 48.7 | 50 | -154 pips |
| 02 Sep 2025 | 48.7 | 46.8 | +230 pips |
| 01 Aug 2025 | 48 | 48.9 | +39 pips |
| 01 Jul 2025 | 49 | 47.3 | -56 pips |
The next the ISM factory survey release is due on Monday 2 November 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Moves are in pips, where one pip on gold is $0.10, measured from the price at the minute of the release.
Get it live in the Newsroom
The Newsroom in the Trade By Focus app has this for every US release: the result against the forecast as it lands, gold's move after it, how it compares with every earlier release, and the next ones on the calendar, with the day's gold news read as it comes in. Open the Newsroom
Important
For analysis purposes only. This shows what happened after past releases and should not be taken as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Past moves do not tell you what gold will do next. Trading carries a high risk of losing money.
Want full trade management from your phone? Trade your live MT5 account with Trade By Focus on any broker, with a 7-day free trial.
Trade your MT5 account from your phone
Full trade management, automated entry tasks, live charts, and an AI coach watching every position, on any MT5 broker. Start your 7-day free trial, no credit card needed.
Start your free trial →