Gold loses 1,897 pips as hot CPI and Fed hike bets break $4,000

Gold fell 1,897 pips this week, from $4,071.42 to $3,881.74, after US inflation data drove Treasury yields to 5% and bets on a December Fed rate hike firmed up. Monday's 675-pip rally to a week high of $4,141.58 was erased by three heavy down days in a row, with a low of $3,869.89.

The high-impact news

US CPI inflation, Tuesday 10 November. CPI measures how much consumer prices rose over the month and is the main inflation figure. It matters for gold because hotter inflation raises the chance of higher US rates, and gold pays no interest. The headline came in at 0.4% against a 0.5% forecast, which counts as about in line. Gold still fell 199 pips in the first hour and 514 pips after four hours. That first-hour move was roughly two and a half times the usual 78 pips. Our read: the market focused on core inflation, which came in hot, rather than on the headline. Hawkish Fed remarks had already knocked gold down more than 1% before the release, and afterwards Treasury yields went above 5% and rate-hike bets jumped. Gold ended Tuesday 1,001 pips lower. On the record, beats and misses have not sent gold one clear way on CPI since April 2021: after a clear miss, the first hour was up 14 of 21 times. See our US CPI inflation breakdown.

US PPI, Friday 13 November. PPI measures the prices businesses receive for their goods over the month, an early read on pipeline inflation. It came in at 0.3% against a 0.4% forecast, again about in line. Gold rose 78 pips in the first hour, nearly double the usual 43, but was only 16 pips higher after four hours. The bounce came after gold had touched its lowest level of 2026 near $3,850, and bargain hunting was already under way. The tame figure did not change the rate story: rising real yields and fears of hikes held gold back, and it finished Friday just 12 pips up. The record fits the first-hour move. Since April 2021 PPI came in clearly below forecast 21 times, and gold's first hour was up 16 of those, by a middle amount of +24 pips. More in our US PPI breakdown.

What else moved gold

Monday's gain came from a weaker dollar after an oil rout eased inflation worries, plus risk-off flows as an Nvidia "spy" scandal hit tech stocks. Gold opened above $4,100 on Tuesday for the first time in three weeks.

The dollar then turned hard. The US Dollar Index hit a 19-month high of 103.08 on Thursday, and gold dropped below $4,000 on Wednesday, falling 602 pips that day. Thursday brought a further 982-pip drop to a 13-month low as traders weighed a half-point Fed hike, even though weekly jobless claims rose to 200,000.

Physical demand pulled the other way. Indians bought 30% more gold after the price correction, Diwali buying picked up, and gold imports pushed India's October trade deficit to a one-year high of $39.88 billion, although inflows into Indian gold ETFs eased. China has bought gold for two straight years, Singapore opened a gold vault for central banks, and Russia's reserves fell $10.8bn in October as gold slid. Tensions around Hormuz lifted crude oil midweek.

What the coverage is focused on now

The news at the end of the week is dominated by the Fed: whether it raises rates in December, and by how much, with Treasury yields sitting at 5% and the dollar near its highs for the year. Coverage also centres on gold's break below $4,000 and its October low, with comparisons to April 2013. Lower prices drawing festive buying in India are the main counterweight in the reporting.

Get it live in the Newsroom

The Newsroom in the Trade By Focus app shows this as it happens: every gold article read as it comes in, which way it leans and what it is about, plotted against gold's price, alongside the calendar and gold's reaction to every release. Open the Newsroom

Important

For analysis purposes only. This describes last week's gold news and what gold did; it is not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. The news is no guide to where gold goes next. Trading carries a high risk of losing money.