Gold Gains 1,956 Pips as Bonds Rally and Payrolls Jolt Prices

Gold rose 1,956 pips this week, from $3,875.82 to $4,071.42, after a US political shift lifted bonds and a technology sell-off pushed investors towards safety. It reached a high of $4,140.68, and by Friday morning it was on course for its best week since August.

Most of the gain came on two days: Monday added 722 pips and Wednesday 1,273. Tuesday slipped 98 pips and Friday gave back 144.

The high-impact news

ISM manufacturing, Monday. This is a survey of factory managers, and a reading above 50 means factories are growing. A stronger factory sector can support the dollar and yields, which tends to weigh on gold. It came in at 55.5 against a forecast of 54.7, a clear beat. Gold was down 66 pips after an hour and 108 pips after four, which is a bigger first hour than the usual 50 pips. Since April 2021, beats and misses on this survey have not sent gold one clear way: it was up after 9 of 18 clear beats. The dip did not last, and gold still closed Monday 722 pips higher. More in our ISM manufacturing survey breakdown.

JOLTS job openings, Tuesday. This counts the jobs employers are trying to fill, so it shows how much demand there is for workers. Openings came in at 7.523M against 6.779M, a clear beat. Gold fell 81 pips in the first hour and 164 pips by the fourth, against a usual first-hour move of about 47 pips. On past form the result does not point one way: gold rose after 13 of 30 clear beats. This time the strong number lined up with Tuesday's 98-pip loss. See our US job openings (JOLTS) breakdown.

ADP jobs, Wednesday. ADP counts private-sector jobs and comes out two days before payrolls. It showed 86K against 64K, which is about in line. Gold rose 11 pips in the first hour, well under the usual 55, and then 234 pips by the fourth. The record of a 9 in 12 rise after clear misses did not apply, because this was not a miss. Details are in our ADP jobs report breakdown.

ISM services, Wednesday. This survey covers service businesses, the largest part of the US economy. It came in at 54.5 against 55.2, also about in line. Gold added 114 pips in the first hour, about twice the usual 58, and 236 pips after four. With neither Wednesday release a clear surprise, the 1,273-pip day fits the bond rally and the move towards safety more than the data itself. Read our ISM services survey breakdown.

US jobs report, Friday. Nonfarm payrolls is the month's biggest test of the labour market and shapes views on US rates. It came in at 165K against a forecast of 55K, a very large beat. Gold fell 275 pips in the first hour, nearly three times the usual 96, but was back to +8 pips after four hours. The record runs the other way: in all 13 clear misses since May 2021, gold rose in the first hour. A beat this big gave sellers a reason to act, yet the drop was fully recovered within the session. Full detail in our US jobs report breakdown.

What else moved gold

Bonds rallied on a US political shift, and that supported gold for most of the week. A sell-off in technology shares sent investors looking for safety, and gold broke above $4,100. Even as the wider risk mood improved, gold kept rising.

Physical demand helped too. Indian buying got a festive boost after the price pullback, and the Dhanteras festival kept attention on purchases there.

On Friday morning gold eased as higher oil prices raised inflation worries, ahead of the payrolls data.

What the coverage is focused on now

By the end of the week, most coverage was about gold's run above $4,100 and its strongest week since August. Other themes were the US political shift and the bond rally, Indian festive demand, and inflation worries tied to higher oil prices.

Get it live in the Newsroom

The Newsroom in the Trade By Focus app shows this as it happens: every gold article read as it comes in, which way it leans and what it is about, plotted against gold's price, alongside the calendar and gold's reaction to every release. Open the Newsroom

Important

For analysis purposes only. This describes last week's gold news and what gold did; it is not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. The news is no guide to where gold goes next. Trading carries a high risk of losing money.