How gold reacted to the ADP jobs report on Wednesday 4 November 2026
Private-sector jobs added, counted by the payroll firm ADP. Out two days before payrolls. The latest figure came out at 13:15 UK time on Wednesday 4 November 2026: 86K, against a forecast of 64K. The previous reading was 90K.
The lowest reading since September 2026 (38K). Eighth release in a row above forecast.
What gold did
In the first 15 minutes gold moved -24 pips, and over the first hour +11 pips. Four hours after the release it was +235 pips from where it started.
That was a quieter first hour than usual: since May 2021, gold's first hour after ADP jobs has typically moved about 55 pips one way or the other, across 61 releases. It was up after 38 of them and down after 23.
When the ADP jobs report surprised before
This release came in about in line with the forecast.
Since May 2021, ADP jobs came in clearly below forecast 12 times. Gold's first hour was up 9 of those 12 times, by a middle amount of +78 pips.
The last releases
| Date | Result | Forecast | Gold, first hour |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov 2026 | 86K | 64K | +11 pips |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 90K | 41K | +81 pips |
| 02 Sep 2026 | 38K | 14K | +64 pips |
| 05 Aug 2026 | 44K | -12K | -95 pips |
| 01 Apr 2026 | 62K | 20K | -106 pips |
| 04 Mar 2026 | 63K | 11K | -274 pips |
| 04 Feb 2026 | 22K | 7K | +185 pips |
| 07 Jan 2026 | 41K | 3K | +140 pips |
| 03 Dec 2025 | -31K | 9K | +138 pips |
| 05 Nov 2025 | 42K | -137K | +76 pips |
| 01 Oct 2025 | -32K | -19K | -183 pips |
| 04 Sep 2025 | 54K | 136K | -11 pips |
The next ADP jobs release is due on Wednesday 2 December 2026 at 13:15 UK time.
Moves are in pips, where one pip on gold is $0.10, measured from the price at the minute of the release.
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