How gold reacted to the ADP jobs report on Wednesday 30 September 2026
Private-sector jobs added, counted by the payroll firm ADP. Out two days before payrolls. The latest figure came out at 13:15 UK time on Wednesday 30 September 2026: 90K, against a forecast of 41K. The previous reading was 38K.
The highest reading since July 2025 (104K). Seventh release in a row above forecast.
What gold did
In the first 15 minutes gold moved -12 pips, and over the first hour +81 pips. Four hours after the release it was -336 pips from where it started, and a day later -118 pips.
That was a bigger first hour than usual: since May 2021, gold's first hour after ADP jobs has typically moved about 53 pips one way or the other, across 60 releases. It was up after 37 of them and down after 23.
When the ADP jobs report surprised before
This release came in clearly above forecast. The 24 earlier times that happened since May 2021, gold's first hour was up 14 times and down 10, with a middle move of +7 pips. No clear pattern either way.
Since May 2021, ADP jobs came in clearly below forecast 12 times. Gold's first hour was up 9 of those 12 times, by a middle amount of +78 pips.
The last releases
| Date | Result | Forecast | Gold, first hour |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | 90K | 41K | +81 pips |
| 02 Sep 2026 | 38K | 14K | +64 pips |
| 05 Aug 2026 | 44K | -12K | -95 pips |
| 01 Apr 2026 | 62K | 20K | -106 pips |
| 04 Mar 2026 | 63K | 11K | -274 pips |
| 04 Feb 2026 | 22K | 7K | +185 pips |
| 07 Jan 2026 | 41K | 3K | +140 pips |
| 03 Dec 2025 | -31K | 9K | +138 pips |
| 05 Nov 2025 | 42K | -137K | +76 pips |
| 01 Oct 2025 | -32K | -19K | -183 pips |
| 04 Sep 2025 | 54K | 136K | -11 pips |
| 30 Jul 2025 | 104K | 57K | -189 pips |
The next ADP jobs release is due on Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 13:15 UK time.
Moves are in pips, where one pip on gold is $0.10, measured from the price at the minute of the release.
Get it live in the Newsroom
The Newsroom in the Trade By Focus app has this for every US release: the result against the forecast as it lands, gold's move after it, how it compares with every earlier release, and the next ones on the calendar, with the day's gold news read as it comes in. Open the Newsroom
Important
For analysis purposes only. This shows what happened after past releases and should not be taken as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Past moves do not tell you what gold will do next. Trading carries a high risk of losing money.
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