How gold reacted to the ISM manufacturing survey on Monday 2 November 2026
A survey of factory managers. Above 50 means factories are growing. The latest figure came out at 15:00 UK time on Monday 2 November 2026: 55.5, against a forecast of 54.7. The previous reading was 54.5.
The highest reading since August 2026 (55.6).
Out at the same time: ISM factory prices 75.2 (forecast 80.7).
What gold did
In the first 15 minutes gold moved -84 pips, and over the first hour -66 pips. Four hours after the release it was -106 pips from where it started.
That was about a usual first hour: since April 2021, gold's first hour after the ISM factory survey has typically moved about 50 pips one way or the other, across 63 releases. It was up after 29 of them and down after 34.
When the ISM manufacturing survey surprised before
This release came in clearly above forecast. The 18 earlier times that happened since April 2021, gold's first hour was up 9 times and down 9, with a middle move of -6 pips. No clear pattern either way.
Beats and misses have not sent gold one clear way on the ISM factory survey since April 2021: after a clear miss gold's first hour was up 14 of 28 times, after a clear beat 9 of 18.
The last releases
| Date | Result | Forecast | Gold, first hour |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Nov 2026 | 55.5 | 54.7 | -66 pips |
| 01 Oct 2026 | 54.5 | 56 | -24 pips |
| 01 Sep 2026 | 54.6 | 55.2 | -53 pips |
| 03 Aug 2026 | 55.6 | 53 | +42 pips |
| 01 May 2026 | 52.7 | 49.8 | +71 pips |
| 01 Apr 2026 | 52.7 | 52.2 | +234 pips |
| 02 Mar 2026 | 52.4 | 53 | -157 pips |
| 02 Feb 2026 | 52.6 | 47.4 | -858 pips |
| 01 Dec 2025 | 48.2 | 49.3 | -71 pips |
| 03 Nov 2025 | 48.7 | 50 | -154 pips |
| 02 Sep 2025 | 48.7 | 46.8 | +230 pips |
| 01 Aug 2025 | 48 | 48.9 | +39 pips |
The next the ISM factory survey release is due on Tuesday 1 December 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Moves are in pips, where one pip on gold is $0.10, measured from the price at the minute of the release.
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