How gold reacted to US core PCE inflation on Thursday 29 October 2026
The Fed's preferred inflation measure, without food and energy, over the month. The latest figure came out at 12:30 UK time on Thursday 29 October 2026: 0.3%, against a forecast of 0.2%. The previous reading was 0.2%.
The highest reading since June 2026 (0.3%).
Out at the same time: GDP 3.4% (forecast 1.4%); yearly core PCE 3.1% (forecast 3.1%); GDP sales 1.7% (forecast 2.7%).
What gold did
In the first 15 minutes gold moved +4 pips, and over the first hour +6 pips. Four hours after the release it was -41 pips from where it started.
That was a quieter first hour than usual: since April 2021, gold's first hour after core PCE has typically moved about 43 pips one way or the other, across 59 releases. It was up after 31 of them and down after 28.
When US core PCE inflation surprised before
This release came in clearly above forecast. The 20 earlier times that happened since April 2021, gold's first hour was up 6 times and down 14, with a middle move of -24 pips.
Since April 2021, core PCE came in clearly above forecast 20 times. Gold's first hour was down 14 of those 20 times, by a middle amount of −24 pips.
The last releases
| Date | Result | Forecast | Gold, first hour |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | 0.3% | 0.2% | +6 pips |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 0.2% | 0.2% | +1 pips |
| 26 Aug 2026 | 0.2% | 0.2% | -193 pips |
| 30 Jul 2026 | 0.1% | 0.4% | +34 pips |
| 30 Apr 2026 | 0.3% | 0.3% | +37 pips |
| 09 Apr 2026 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +148 pips |
| 13 Mar 2026 | 0.4% | 0.3% | -49 pips |
| 20 Feb 2026 | 0.4% | 0.2% | +128 pips |
| 22 Jan 2026 | 0.2% | 0.2% | +371 pips |
| 26 Sep 2025 | 0.2% | 0.2% | +86 pips |
| 29 Aug 2025 | 0.3% | 0.2% | +99 pips |
| 31 Jul 2025 | 0.3% | 0.4% | +19 pips |
The next core PCE release is due on Wednesday 25 November 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Moves are in pips, where one pip on gold is $0.10, measured from the price at the minute of the release.
Get it live in the Newsroom
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