How gold reacted to US core PCE inflation on Wednesday 30 September 2026
The Fed's preferred inflation measure, without food and energy, over the month. The latest figure came out at 13:30 UK time on Wednesday 30 September 2026: 0.2%, against a forecast of 0.2%. The previous reading was 0.2%.
Came in exactly on the forecast.
Out at the same time: GDP 2.2% (forecast 1.5%); yearly core PCE 3% (forecast 3.3%); GDP sales 2.8% (forecast 2.2%).
What gold did
In the first 15 minutes gold moved +214 pips, and over the first hour +1 pips. Four hours after the release it was -321 pips from where it started, and a day later -106 pips.
That was a quieter first hour than usual: since April 2021, gold's first hour after core PCE has typically moved about 44 pips one way or the other, across 58 releases. It was up after 30 of them and down after 28.
When US core PCE inflation surprised before
This release came in about in line with the forecast.
Since April 2021, core PCE came in clearly above forecast 20 times. Gold's first hour was down 14 of those 20 times, by a middle amount of −24 pips.
The last releases
| Date | Result | Forecast | Gold, first hour |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | 0.2% | 0.2% | +1 pips |
| 26 Aug 2026 | 0.2% | 0.2% | -193 pips |
| 30 Jul 2026 | 0.1% | 0.4% | +34 pips |
| 30 Apr 2026 | 0.3% | 0.3% | +37 pips |
| 09 Apr 2026 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +148 pips |
| 13 Mar 2026 | 0.4% | 0.3% | -49 pips |
| 20 Feb 2026 | 0.4% | 0.2% | +128 pips |
| 22 Jan 2026 | 0.2% | 0.2% | +371 pips |
| 26 Sep 2025 | 0.2% | 0.2% | +86 pips |
| 29 Aug 2025 | 0.3% | 0.2% | +99 pips |
| 31 Jul 2025 | 0.3% | 0.4% | +19 pips |
| 27 Jun 2025 | 0.2% | 0.3% | -226 pips |
The next core PCE release is due on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Moves are in pips, where one pip on gold is $0.10, measured from the price at the minute of the release.
Get it live in the Newsroom
The Newsroom in the Trade By Focus app has this for every US release: the result against the forecast as it lands, gold's move after it, how it compares with every earlier release, and the next ones on the calendar, with the day's gold news read as it comes in. Open the Newsroom
Important
For analysis purposes only. This shows what happened after past releases and should not be taken as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Past moves do not tell you what gold will do next. Trading carries a high risk of losing money.
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