How gold reacted to US durable goods orders on Tuesday 27 October 2026
Orders for long-lasting goods like machines and vehicles. The latest figure came out at 12:30 UK time on Tuesday 27 October 2026: 1.8%, against a forecast of 0.7%. The previous reading was 0%.
The highest reading since May 2026 (7.9%). Third release in a row above forecast.
What gold did
In the first 15 minutes gold moved -5 pips, and over the first hour -3 pips. Four hours after the release it was +428 pips from where it started.
That was a quieter first hour than usual: since April 2021, gold's first hour after durable goods orders has typically moved about 39 pips one way or the other, across 64 releases. It was up after 27 of them and down after 37.
When US durable goods orders surprised before
This release came in clearly above forecast. The 25 earlier times that happened since April 2021, gold's first hour was up 12 times and down 13, with a middle move of -1 pips. No clear pattern either way.
Beats and misses have not sent gold one clear way on durable goods orders since April 2021: after a clear miss gold's first hour was up 8 of 19 times, after a clear beat 12 of 25.
The last releases
| Date | Result | Forecast | Gold, first hour |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | 1.8% | 0.7% | -3 pips |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 0% | -3.4% | -283 pips |
| 26 Aug 2026 | 1.1% | 0.8% | -193 pips |
| 27 Jul 2026 | 0.3% | 1.7% | -105 pips |
| 29 Apr 2026 | 0.8% | 4.7% | -214 pips |
| 07 Apr 2026 | -1.4% | -2.2% | -79 pips |
| 13 Mar 2026 | 0% | -0.5% | -49 pips |
| 18 Feb 2026 | -1.4% | -3.2% | +48 pips |
| 26 Jan 2026 | 5.3% | 6.8% | +69 pips |
| 23 Dec 2025 | -2.2% | 1.2% | -239 pips |
| 26 Nov 2025 | 0.5% | -2.9% | -232 pips |
| 25 Sep 2025 | 2.9% | -0.5% | -117 pips |
The next durable goods orders release is due on Wednesday 25 November 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Moves are in pips, where one pip on gold is $0.10, measured from the price at the minute of the release.
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