How gold reacted to US durable goods orders on Friday 25 September 2026
Orders for long-lasting goods like machines and vehicles. The latest figure came out at 13:30 UK time on Friday 25 September 2026: 0%, against a forecast of -3.4%. The previous reading was 1.1%.
The lowest reading since June 2026 (-4.5%). Second release in a row above forecast.
What gold did
In the first 15 minutes gold moved -50 pips, and over the first hour -283 pips. Four hours after the release it was -145 pips from where it started, and a day later -205 pips.
That was a bigger first hour than usual: since April 2021, gold's first hour after durable goods orders has typically moved about 37 pips one way or the other, across 63 releases. It was up after 27 of them and down after 36.
When US durable goods orders surprised before
This release came in clearly above forecast. The 24 earlier times that happened since April 2021, gold's first hour was up 12 times and down 12, with a middle move of +2 pips. No clear pattern either way.
Beats and misses have not sent gold one clear way on durable goods orders since April 2021: after a clear miss gold's first hour was up 8 of 19 times, after a clear beat 12 of 24.
The last releases
| Date | Result | Forecast | Gold, first hour |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | 0% | -3.4% | -283 pips |
| 26 Aug 2026 | 1.1% | 0.8% | -193 pips |
| 27 Jul 2026 | 0.3% | 1.7% | -105 pips |
| 29 Apr 2026 | 0.8% | 4.7% | -214 pips |
| 07 Apr 2026 | -1.4% | -2.2% | -79 pips |
| 13 Mar 2026 | 0% | -0.5% | -49 pips |
| 18 Feb 2026 | -1.4% | -3.2% | +48 pips |
| 26 Jan 2026 | 5.3% | 6.8% | +69 pips |
| 23 Dec 2025 | -2.2% | 1.2% | -239 pips |
| 26 Nov 2025 | 0.5% | -2.9% | -232 pips |
| 25 Sep 2025 | 2.9% | -0.5% | -117 pips |
| 26 Aug 2025 | -2.8% | 4% | -28 pips |
The next durable goods orders release is due on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Moves are in pips, where one pip on gold is $0.10, measured from the price at the minute of the release.
Get it live in the Newsroom
The Newsroom in the Trade By Focus app has this for every US release: the result against the forecast as it lands, gold's move after it, how it compares with every earlier release, and the next ones on the calendar, with the day's gold news read as it comes in. Open the Newsroom
Important
For analysis purposes only. This shows what happened after past releases and should not be taken as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Past moves do not tell you what gold will do next. Trading carries a high risk of losing money.
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