How gold reacted to US retail sales on Thursday 15 October 2026
Spending in shops and online over the month. The latest figure came out at 13:30 UK time on Thursday 15 October 2026: 0.8%, against a forecast of 1.2%. The previous reading was 1.2%.
The lowest reading since August 2026 (-0.6%).
Out at the same time: jobless claims 199K (forecast 192K); PPI 1.3% (forecast 0%); core retail sales 0.9% (forecast 0.6%); the Philadelphia Fed survey 20.9 (forecast 33.5).
What gold did
In the first 15 minutes gold moved -78 pips, and over the first hour +23 pips. Four hours after the release it was -39 pips from where it started.
That was about a usual first hour: since April 2021, gold's first hour after retail sales has typically moved about 40 pips one way or the other, across 65 releases. It was up after 36 of them and down after 29.
When US retail sales surprised before
This release came in clearly below forecast. The 20 earlier times that happened since April 2021, gold's first hour was up 13 times and down 7, with a middle move of +20 pips.
Beats and misses have not sent gold one clear way on retail sales since April 2021: after a clear miss gold's first hour was up 13 of 20 times, after a clear beat 14 of 34.
The last releases
| Date | Result | Forecast | Gold, first hour |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | 0.8% | 1.2% | +23 pips |
| 16 Sep 2026 | 1.2% | 0.3% | +121 pips |
| 14 Aug 2026 | -0.6% | 0% | +43 pips |
| 16 Jul 2026 | 0.2% | -0.2% | -194 pips |
| 14 May 2026 | 0.5% | 1.2% | -148 pips |
| 21 Apr 2026 | 1.7% | 0.6% | -53 pips |
| 01 Apr 2026 | 0.6% | 0.3% | +17 pips |
| 06 Mar 2026 | -0.2% | -0.3% | +219 pips |
| 10 Feb 2026 | 0% | 0.1% | +327 pips |
| 14 Jan 2026 | 0.6% | 1.1% | +40 pips |
| 16 Dec 2025 | 0% | -0.1% | +246 pips |
| 25 Nov 2025 | 0.2% | -0.2% | -71 pips |
The next retail sales release is due on Tuesday 17 November 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Moves are in pips, where one pip on gold is $0.10, measured from the price at the minute of the release.
Get it live in the Newsroom
The Newsroom in the Trade By Focus app has this for every US release: the result against the forecast as it lands, gold's move after it, how it compares with every earlier release, and the next ones on the calendar, with the day's gold news read as it comes in. Open the Newsroom
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